Southeast Region Labor Market Trends
Brent Pearson
Regional Labor Market Analyst
Labor Market Information Office
Labor Market Information (LMI) Office
•LMI Office supports state workforce and economic development systems by producing and disseminating data, key indicators, analysis, and trends on the economy, workforce, job market, and business community.
•LMI Office’s high quality information advises policy makers on current and future economic trends, helps employers make informed business decisions, and assists individuals in making strong career choices.
Minnesota job trend overview
•Employment is growing
–649,996 more jobs compared to last October
–6Regained all jobs lost during the recession, plus 5,100 jobs
•Unemployment rate at 4.8% in October
–6Compared to a 7.3% rate in the United States
• Other positive signs
–69 of 11 major sectors show increases over-the-year
–6MN outpaces the nation in 6 of 11
–6The Avg. work week in Sept. up to 34.3 – matches previous high
–6MN slightly outpaces nation OTY job growth (1.8 to 1.7%)
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development & The Conference Board
Over-the-year regional trends in Minnesota, October 2013
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) |
Numeric Employment Change Percent |
Minneapolis-St. Paul MN-WI |
42,878 |
Duluth-Superior MN-WI |
419 |
Rochester |
224 |
St. Cloud |
2,248 |
Mankato |
516 |
|
|
Minnesota |
49,996 |
United States |
2,299,000 1.7% |
Data are September 2012 to September 2013.
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Regional industry trends
•11 of 19 sectors in SE grew in past year.
•6 lost
•Highest growth in Admin and Support and Waste Management Services
•Overall, SE grew approx 4,500 jobs (2%)
•6 sectors exceeded that growth
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Regional industry trends
Assessing the recovery
•6 sectors have fully recovered
•7 have not
•Construction and Finance are way down
•Management of Companies, Ag, and HC + Social high % gains
•Still too soon to say these industries will not recover
SE: Job Openings Expanding
SE: Job Openings by Industry
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Top 12 occupations with the most openings in the SE Region (n=5,421)
•Combined Food Prep & Serving Workers (204)
•Nursing Assistants (199)
•Waiters and Waitresses (187)
•Social and Human Service Assistants (186)
•Cashiers (182)
•Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers (158)
•Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses (134)
•Retail Salespersons (117)
•Restaurant Cooks (112)
•Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers (108)
•Personal Care Aides (107)
•Bartenders (106)
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Minnesota and U.S. Unemployment Rates
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Regional unemployment rates
County |
Olmsted |
Wabasha |
Dodge |
Fillmore |
Mower |
Steele |
Houston |
Winona |
Goodhue |
Freeborn |
Rice 4.4% |
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Forecasting future job trends
•Minnesota’s economy will grow by 13%, or 368,000 new jobs, between 2010 and 2020.
•Over 663,000 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant through retirements and replacements.
•Employment changes depend on the demand for goods and services, productivity advances, technological innovations, and shifts in business practices.
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Assumptions
•Recovery from the steep job losses experienced between 2008 and 2010 will boost job growth in Minnesota during the next few years, but job growth will slow.
•Job growth over the next decade will average 1.3% a year, a pace similar to job growth experienced in 2011.
•The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2010-2020 national industry projections are:
–6GDP growth will average 3.0 % annually
–6Productivity growth will slow
–6U.S. labor force growth will slow
–6Unemployment will average 5.2% in 2020
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Health care will add the most new jobs in SE MN between 2010 and 2020
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Office, Health Care and Sales occupations will need the largest numbers of workers
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
SE Region fastest growing occupations, 2010 to 2020
Total All = 14.3%
•Biomedical Engineers (94.4%)
•Personal Care Aides (69.4%)
•Home Health Aides (61.8%)
•Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers (60.9%)
•Veterinary Technologists and Technicians (56.4%)
•Carpenter Helpers (56.1%)
•Medical Equipment Repairers (52.3%)
•HVAC (Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration) Mechanics (51.5%)
•Audiologists (51.4%)
•Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters (47.4%)
•Translators and Interpreters (44.8%)
•Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators (44%)
•Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians (42%)
•Mental Health Counselors (41.7%)
•Glaziers (41.4%)
•Metal Workers and Plastic Workers, All Other (41.2%)
•Electricians (39.2%)
•Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors (38.9%)
•Veterinarians (38.2%)
•Sheet Metal Workers (38.1%)
•Cost Estimators (37.7%)
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
SE Region occupations adding the most jobs, 2010 to 2020
Total All = 97,350 (59,620 replacement)
•Retail Salespersons (3,810)
•Registered Nurses (3,650)
•Cashiers (3,170)
•Home Health Aides (2,960)
•Waiters and Waitresses (1,880)
•Office Clerks, General (1,860)
•Combined Food Prep and Serving Workers (1,800)
•Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (1,780)
•Personal Care Aides (1,670)
•Childcare Workers (1,410)
•Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Mpovers (1,350)
•Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeepers (1,260)
•Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants (1,180)
•Customer Service Reps (1,150)
•Business Operations Specialists (1,110)
•Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Workers (1,070)
•Medical Secretaries (990)
•First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (910)
•Teacher Assistants (870)
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Jobs in demand by educational level
Prerequisite educational levels from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Jobs in demand by educational level
•Top OID w/o Degree
Ø6$16,000 to $35,00 salary range (typically)
•Top OID w/ Associate’s/Bachelor’s
Ø6HC occupations start appearing
Ø6$35,00 to $60,000 range (typically)
•Masters and Doctorates
Ø6Highest $50 to $80,000 plus
Ø6Sky’s the limit (Surgeons, Counselors, Physicians, Biologists, Lawyers, Urban Planners, Education Administrators, etc.)
Ø6
New LMI products in 2014
•“Better LMI”
–6Workforce supply and demand
–6Educational attainment of workers and employment outcomes of recent graduates by program of study
–6
•Cost of Living
–6Link basic needs budget to hourly pay and current/future job opportunities
–6Statewide report and regional/county-level analysis
Let me know how I can help
Brent Pearson
Regional Labor Market Analyst
Labor Market Information Office
Phone: 507-389-1896
brent.pearson@state.mn.us
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